Matches / Upcoming / MOUZ vs Spirit
MOUZ vs Spirit: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Pro League Season 24
MOUZ
World #3 · 42-22
VS
2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
ESL Pro League Season 24 · Best of 3 · ★★★★★
Spirit
World #1 · 48-12
ESL Pro League Season 24 · Best of 3 · ★★★★★
45%55%
41%
2.31.6Market · 23 books
59%The call
Spirit are favoured: our model gives them 55% against MOUZ. Bookmakers lean Spirit at 59%. Record slightly favours Spirit, form slightly favours MOUZ, firepower slightly favours Spirit, head-to-head slightly favours Spirit.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Cache
Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Spirit · avg 1.18 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MOUZ
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents5d ago MOUZ2 : 0
Spirit◆ same lineup1mo ago MOUZ1 : 3 Spirit◆ same lineup2mo ago MOUZ3 : 1 Spirit◆ same lineup5mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!6mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!8mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!
MOUZ2 : 0 Spirit◆ same lineup1mo ago MOUZ1 : 3 Spirit◆ same lineup2mo ago MOUZ3 : 1 Spirit◆ same lineup5mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outjL
inPR
MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outBrollan, Jimpphat
inPR, xelex
MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outBrollan, Jimpphat
inPR, xelex
Vitality#23-62-4
MOUZ vs Vitality
Sep 5WDust213-11Mirage13-7Jun 13LMirage9-13Dust213-7Inferno4-13Feb 16LDust25-13Inferno8-13+1 earlier meeting
FURIA#46-65-3
MOUZ vs FURIA
Oct 9WNuke13-11Inferno13-6Oct 4WCache13-4Mirage13-7Sep 19LCache8-13Mirage19-16Nuke6-13+2 earlier meetings
Falcons#55-310-4
MOUZ vs Falcons
Aug 31WNuke6-13Ancient13-6Inferno13-3May 23LMirage13-7Dust27-13Nuke10-13Feb 3WInferno16-14Dust219-17Spirit vs Falcons
Oct 9WMirage13-8Anubis13-10Sep 5WNuke13-8Ancient13-11Jun 20LAnubis14-16Mirage13-8Dust212-16+3 earlier meetings
Legacy#64-12-0
Spirit vs Legacy
Aug 22WDust213-7Ancient13-9
G2#74-112-2
Spirit vs G2
Aug 28WDust213-6Cache13-9Jun 19WOverpass9-13Dust216-14Mirage25-22May 15WDust213-6Ancient13-11+3 earlier meetings
FUT#85-83-1
MOUZ vs FUT
Aug 21LDust213-16Ancient5-13Aug 14LAncient6-13Nuke16-12Mirage11-13Jun 14LAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage7-13+2 earlier meetings
Spirit vs FUT
Aug 23WCache10-13Anubis16-13Ancient16-14Nuke13-5
Aurora#96-22-1
MOUZ vs Aurora
May 15WDust213-11Nuke13-8May 12WDust214-16Dust213-11Nuke19-15Apr 14WDust213-4Mirage13-8+1 earlier meeting
Spirit vs Aurora
Jun 12WDust29-13Anubis13-4Nuke13-5
Natus Vincere#106-24-0
Map lab
Spirit60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit 2-1
If the veto goes
MOUZ 40%how the series ends60% Spirit
14%2-029%
26%2-131%
MOUZ63%26-8vsSpirit37%20-11
76%Win65%
64%CT59%
53%T49%
49%Pistol56%
88%Conv80%
MOUZ23%16-19vsSpirit77%31-10
46%Win76%
49%CT55%
46%T55%
43%Pistol44%
87%Conv91%
MOUZ45%3-3vsSpirit55%5-4
50%Win56%
67%CT55%
38%T51%
33%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MOUZMirageSpirit
64%CT side59%
53%T side49%
49%Pistol56%
88%After win80%
31%After loss15%
MOUZDust2Spirit
49%CT side55%
46%T side55%
43%Pistol44%
87%After win91%
28%After loss20%
MOUZCacheSpirit
67%CT side55%
38%T side51%
33%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
25%After loss22%
Pistol rounds45% · 49% · Spirit win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 87% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol29% · 18% · MOUZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Spirit habitually bans Inferno, MOUZ's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Overpass all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 60/60), not an opponent read, so expect MOUZ to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapMOUSPI
AnubisMOU bann/a0g75%12-4
MOUZ on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoSPI ban69%18-8n/a0g
MOUZ on Inferno
WFURIA13–61d agoWNatus Vincere13–1022d agoW
NRG13–523d agoWFalcons13–31mo agoW
PARIVISION13–102mo agoW
3DMAX13–32mo agoLVitality4–134mo agoWFURIA13–54mo agoSpirit on Inferno
no recent maps
MirageMOU pick76%26-865%20-11
Dust2SPI pick46%16-1976%31-10
AncientMOU ban42%8-1182%18-4
NukeSPI ban58%14-1067%10-5
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ Anubis · Spirit Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/95 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 35 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 downvs Inner CircleAncientfrom 9 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 8 downvs NRGInfernofrom 8 downvs SpiritDust2from 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/60 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 19 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs FUTDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zAncientled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs FalconsInferno16-14vs FalconsDust219-17vs G2Overpass16-13vs FUTOverpass16-14vs AstralisAncient14-16
Spirit
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/101 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 101 maps they won, 33 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zMiragefrom 7 downvs M80Dust2from 7 downvs FURIAMiragefrom 6 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/42 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 12 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs MOUZMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs 9zOverpassled 6 · lost 12-16vs VitalityNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs FUTCacheled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs AstralisDust216-13vs Natus VincereMirage16-14vs G2Dust216-13vs FURIAMirage13-16vs VitalityMirage13-16
MOUZ vs Spirit FAQ
Who is favored to win MOUZ vs Spirit?
Spirit are favored with a 55% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for MOUZ vs Spirit?
Bookmakers price MOUZ at 2.3 and Spirit at 1.6 (implied 41% vs 59%).
When do MOUZ and Spirit play?
MOUZ vs Spirit is scheduled for 2026-10-10 17:00 UTC at ESL Pro League Season 24.