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Predictions / MOUZ vs Liquid · match preview
MOUZ vs Liquid: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
MOUZ
World #4 · 43-23
VS
2026-10-24 10:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
Liquid
World #27 · 34-34
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
70%30%
77%
1.24Market · 6 books
23%The call
MOUZ are favoured: our model gives them 70% against Liquid. Bookmakers lean MOUZ at 77%. Strength clearly favours MOUZ, record slightly favours MOUZ, form clearly favours MOUZ.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZpullLiquid
Team strength1748
163074/26 MOU
Track record43–23
34–3460/40 MOU
Recent formLWWWW
LLLWL75/25 MOU
Roster rating1.12
1.1156/44 LIQ
Bookmakers imply 77% for MOUZ (1.2 / 4); we land 7 points lower at 70%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (161 maps of MOUZ, 147 of Liquid).
Bottom line: MOUZ to beat Liquid, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Liquid · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#18-110-6
MOUZ vs Spirit
Oct 10WDust213-7Mirage5-13Nuke13-11Oct 5WDust213-5Mirage13-11Sep 6LDust28-13Mirage13-11Ancient3-13Nuke6-13+4 earlier meetings
Vitality#23-92-0
MOUZ vs Vitality
Oct 11LCache8-13Inferno7-13Dust212-16Sep 5WDust213-11Mirage13-7Jun 13LMirage9-13Dust213-7Inferno4-13+2 earlier meetings
Liquid vs Vitality
Jul 24WAnubis13-10Nuke13-9
Falcons#65-30-2
MOUZ vs Falcons
Aug 31WNuke6-13Ancient13-6Inferno13-3May 23LMirage13-7Dust27-13Nuke10-13Feb 3WInferno16-14Dust219-17Liquid vs Falcons
Jan 22LNuke14-16Dust28-13
G2#84-13-2
FUT#105-80-2
MOUZ vs FUT
Aug 21LDust213-16Ancient5-13Aug 14LAncient6-13Nuke16-12Mirage11-13Jun 14LAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage7-13+2 earlier meetings
Liquid vs FUT
Jan 30LAncient4-13Nuke9-13
MIBR#122-00-1
MOUZ vs MIBR
May 24WOverpass13-3Ancient13-1Liquid vs MIBR
Jun 3LMirage10-13
PARIVISION#134-30-1
MOUZ vs PARIVISION
Aug 16WDust213-4Inferno13-10Feb 21LDust211-13Inferno10-13Feb 14WDust27-13Inferno13-7Overpass13-3Liquid vs PARIVISION
May 20LDust29-13
Astralis#164-20-2
Liquid vs Astralis
May 12LDust24-13Ancient11-13Map lab
MOUZ55%to win the Bo3 · most likely MOUZ 2-0
If the veto goes
MOUZ 55%how the series ends45% Liquid
38%2-015%
16%2-131%
MOUZ63%26-9vsLiquid37%15-9
74%Win63%
63%CT57%
52%T46%
47%Pistol60%
88%Conv69%
MOUZ61%15-10vsLiquid39%15-16
60%Win48%
59%CT58%
40%T44%
46%Pistol55%
74%Conv82%
MOUZ35%3-4vsLiquid65%8-5
43%Win62%
63%CT51%
38%T56%
43%Pistol58%
100%Conv87%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MOUZMirageLiquid
63%CT side57%
52%T side46%
47%Pistol60%
88%After win69%
32%After loss5%
MOUZNukeLiquid
59%CT side58%
40%T side44%
46%Pistol55%
74%After win82%
30%After loss21%
MOUZCacheLiquid
63%CT side51%
38%T side56%
43%Pistol58%
100%After win87%
25%After loss18%
Pistol rounds46% · 57% · Liquid win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 78% · MOUZ keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol31% · 16% · MOUZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Liquid habitually bans Overpass, MOUZ's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Overpass, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Overpass 38/68), not an opponent read, so expect MOUZ to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapMOULIQ
AnubisMOU bann/a0g59%10-7
MOUZ on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientLIQ ban42%8-1131%5-11
MirageMOU pick74%26-963%15-9
NukeLIQ pick60%15-1048%15-16
Dust2MOU ban46%17-2030%7-16
InfernoLIQ ban67%18-962%13-8
Cachedecider43%3-462%8-5
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ Anubis · Liquid Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/97 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 35 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 downvs Inner CircleAncientfrom 9 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 8 downvs NRGInfernofrom 8 downvs SpiritDust2from 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/64 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 21 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs FUTDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zAncientled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs FalconsInferno16-14vs FalconsDust219-17vs G2Overpass16-13vs FUTOverpass16-14vs AstralisAncient14-16
Liquid
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/73 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 73 maps they won, 19 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs BBLMiragefrom 11 downvs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 downvs M80Miragefrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 4 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/72 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 20 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs 3DMAXNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs magicDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs SashiNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs PARIVISIONDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BBLMiragefrom 11 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs FalconsNuke14-16vs G2Anubis14-16vs Passion UANuke15-19vs M80Mirage16-13