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MOUZ vs Liquid: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026

MOUZ
World #4 · 43-23
VS
2026-10-24 10:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
Liquid
World #27 · 34-34
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
70%
Win probability
30%
77%
1.24Market · 6 booksBookmakerMOULIQ1red1.24.2Epicbet1.24Stake1.24Thunderpick Row1.24duelbits1.24.2GGBet1.233.99
23%
The call

MOUZ are favoured: our model gives them 70% against Liquid. Bookmakers lean MOUZ at 77%. Strength clearly favours MOUZ, record slightly favours MOUZ, form clearly favours MOUZ.

Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache

Firepower

roster ratings

MOUZ · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
xertioN★1.0681.474.6%53%1.16
Spinx1.1275.975.1%58%1.15
torzsi1.226974.8%33%1.11
xelex1.0470.271.7%67%1.11
PR1.0271.275.2%53%1.06

Liquid · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
EliGE★1.0681.773%57%1.15
NAF1.0976.675.3%48%1.15
malbsMd1.0174.871.9%68%1.14
Jorko1.269.874.3%32%1.13
JT0.8766.672.9%54%1

Recent form

MOUZ

VitalityOvertimeOT11d ago0-3Spirit12d ago2-1FURIA13d ago2-0SpiritUpsetUpsetPistolsPist4/417d ago2-0FURIAPistolsPist3/418d ago2-0M8019d ago2-0FURIAOvertimeOT1mo ago1-2Natus VincereBlew leadBL61mo ago2-1NRGUpsetUpset1mo ago1-2SpiritComebackCB72mo ago1-3VitalityUpsetUpset2mo ago2-0Falcons2mo ago2-1Inner CirclePistolsPist3/42mo ago2-09zPistolsPist0/42mo ago2-0FUTOvertimeOT2mo ago0-2

Liquid

magicPistolsPist3/4Blew leadBL72d ago0-2fnaticUpsetUpset3d ago0-2Ninjas in PyjamasBlew leadBL8OvertimeOT6d ago1-2JiJieHaoPistolsPist3/4StompStomp13-29d ago2-0100 ThievesStompStomp0-139d ago1-2BBLOvertimeOT9d ago2-1Wildcard24d ago2-0M80PistolsPist4/4StompStomp13-226d ago2-0NRGPistolsPist4/426d ago2-0Chicken CoopPistolsPist3/427d ago2-0BBLUpsetUpset1mo ago6-133DMAX1mo ago13-6EYEBALLERSPistolsPist2/2Blew leadBL71mo ago14-16Inner Circle1mo ago6-13INFINITE1mo ago13-8

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#18-110-6
MOUZ vs Spirit
Oct 10WDust213-7Mirage5-13Nuke13-11Oct 5WDust213-5Mirage13-11Sep 6LDust28-13Mirage13-11Ancient3-13Nuke6-13
+4 earlier meetings
Liquid vs Spirit
Jul 30LDust27-13Anubis5-13Apr 13LAncient2-13Dust211-13Mar 19LMirage8-13Ancient11-13
Vitality#23-92-0
MOUZ vs Vitality
Oct 11LCache8-13Inferno7-13Dust212-16Sep 5WDust213-11Mirage13-7Jun 13LMirage9-13Dust213-7Inferno4-13
+2 earlier meetings
Liquid vs Vitality
Jul 24WAnubis13-10Nuke13-9
Falcons#65-30-2
MOUZ vs Falcons
Aug 31WNuke6-13Ancient13-6Inferno13-3May 23LMirage13-7Dust27-13Nuke10-13Feb 3WInferno16-14Dust219-17
Liquid vs Falcons
Jan 22LNuke14-16Dust28-13
G2#84-13-2
MOUZ vs G2
May 10WDust214-16Mirage13-10Inferno13-7Feb 6WOverpass16-13Dust213-7
Liquid vs G2
Jul 25WAnubis13-6Mirage13-5Jan 29LMirage8-13Inferno13-6Anubis14-16
FUT#105-80-2
MOUZ vs FUT
Aug 21LDust213-16Ancient5-13Aug 14LAncient6-13Nuke16-12Mirage11-13Jun 14LAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage7-13
+2 earlier meetings
Liquid vs FUT
Jan 30LAncient4-13Nuke9-13
MIBR#122-00-1
MOUZ vs MIBR
May 24WOverpass13-3Ancient13-1
Liquid vs MIBR
Jun 3LMirage10-13
PARIVISION#134-30-1
MOUZ vs PARIVISION
Aug 16WDust213-4Inferno13-10Feb 21LDust211-13Inferno10-13Feb 14WDust27-13Inferno13-7Overpass13-3
Liquid vs PARIVISION
May 20LDust29-13
Astralis#164-20-2
MOUZ vs Astralis
Aug 1WAncient6-13Mirage13-9Dust213-9Mar 7WAncient14-16Mirage13-1Overpass13-3
Liquid vs Astralis
May 12LDust24-13Ancient11-13

Map lab

MOUZ55%to win the Bo3 · most likely MOUZ 2-0
If the veto goes
MOUZ 55%how the series ends45% Liquid
38%2-015%
16%2-131%
Map 1MirageMOUZ pick
MOUZ63%26-9vsLiquid37%15-9
74%Win63%
63%CT57%
52%T46%
47%Pistol60%
88%Conv69%
Map 2NukeLiquid pick
MOUZ61%15-10vsLiquid39%15-16
60%Win48%
59%CT58%
40%T44%
46%Pistol55%
74%Conv82%
Map 3Cachedecider
MOUZ35%3-4vsLiquid65%8-5
43%Win62%
63%CT51%
38%T56%
43%Pistol58%
100%Conv87%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

MOUZMirageLiquid
63%CT side57%
52%T side46%
47%Pistol60%
88%After win69%
32%After loss5%
MOUZNukeLiquid
59%CT side58%
40%T side44%
46%Pistol55%
74%After win82%
30%After loss21%
MOUZCacheLiquid
63%CT side51%
38%T side56%
43%Pistol58%
100%After win87%
25%After loss18%
Pistol rounds46% · 57% · Liquid win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 78% · MOUZ keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol31% · 16% · MOUZ fight back and win the next round more often

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Liquid habitually bans Overpass, MOUZ's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Overpass, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Overpass 38/68), not an opponent read, so expect MOUZ to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapMOULIQ
AnubisMOU bann/a0g59%10-7
MOUZ on Anubis
no recent maps
Liquid on Anubis
Lmagic10–132d agoWWildcard13–924d agoWM8013–226d agoWVoca13–101mo agoLMarsborne10–131mo agoW1win13–62mo agoLBetclic10–133mo agoWfnatic13–53mo ago
AncientLIQ ban42%8-1131%5-11
MOUZ on Ancient
LSpirit3–132mo agoWFalcons13–62mo agoWInner Circle13–42mo agoLFUT5–132mo agoLGamerLegion19–222mo agoLFUT6–132mo agoLSpirit9–133mo agoLAstralis6–133mo ago
Liquid on Ancient
WM8013–55mo agoLAstralis11–135mo agoL3DMAX5–136mo agoLSpirit2–136mo agoLM807–137mo agoWInner Circle13–27mo agoLThe MongolZ3–137mo agoLThe MongolZ14–167mo ago
MirageMOU pick74%26-963%15-9
MOUZ on Mirage
LSpirit5–1312d agoWSpirit13–1117d agoWFURIA13–718d agoWM8013–619d agoWFURIA19–161mo agoWNatus Vincere13–81mo agoWSpirit13–112mo agoWVitality13–72mo ago
Liquid on Mirage
WNinjas in Pyjamas13–96d agoWJiJieHao13–119d agoL100 Thieves9–139d agoWBBL13–89d agoWNRG13–1026d agoLEYEBALLERS14–161mo agoWINFINITE13–81mo agoWNRG13–111mo ago
NukeLIQ pick60%15-1048%15-16
MOUZ on Nuke
WSpirit13–1112d agoWFURIA13–1113d agoLFURIA6–131mo agoLSpirit6–132mo agoLFalcons6–132mo agoW9z13–72mo agoWGamerLegion13–112mo agoWFUT16–122mo ago
Liquid on Nuke
LNinjas in Pyjamas10–136d agoLBBL9–139d agoLBBL6–131mo agoW3DMAX13–61mo agoLNRG7–131mo agoWVoca13–81mo agoWMarsborne13–51mo agoWantivalue13–51mo ago
Dust2MOU ban46%17-2030%7-16
MOUZ on Dust2
LVitality12–1611d agoWSpirit13–712d agoWSpirit13–517d agoLNRG10–131mo agoLSpirit8–132mo agoWVitality13–112mo agoLFUT13–162mo agoWPARIVISION13–42mo ago
Liquid on Dust2
Lmagic10–132d agoL100 Thieves0–139d agoWNRG13–1126d agoLNRG7–131mo agoLVoca6–131mo agoL1win5–132mo agoWDhala13–43mo agoWfnatic13–103mo ago
InfernoLIQ ban67%18-962%13-8
MOUZ on Inferno
LVitality7–1311d agoWFURIA13–613d agoWNatus Vincere13–101mo agoWNRG13–51mo agoWFalcons13–32mo agoWPARIVISION13–102mo agoW3DMAX13–33mo agoLVitality4–134mo ago
Liquid on Inferno
Lfnatic7–133d agoW100 Thieves13–89d agoWWildcard13–424d agoWChicken Coop13–327d agoWNRG13–51mo agoWMarsborne16–131mo agoWMetizport13–103mo agoLFlyQuest7–135mo ago
Cachedecider43%3-462%8-5
MOUZ on Cache
LVitality8–1311d agoWFURIA13–418d agoWM8013–919d agoLFURIA8–131mo agoLNatus Vincere10–131mo agoLNRG11–131mo agoW9z13–42mo ago
Liquid on Cache
Lfnatic4–133d agoLNinjas in Pyjamas13–166d agoWJiJieHao13–29d agoWBBL16–149d agoWM8016–1326d agoWChicken Coop13–427d agoLInner Circle6–131mo agoWNRG13–61mo ago
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ Anubis · Liquid Overpass.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

MOUZ

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/97 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 35 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 downvs Inner CircleAncientfrom 9 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 8 downvs NRGInfernofrom 8 downvs SpiritDust2from 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/64 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 21 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs FUTDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zAncientled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs FalconsInferno16-14vs FalconsDust219-17vs G2Overpass16-13vs FUTOverpass16-14vs AstralisAncient14-16

Liquid

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/73 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 73 maps they won, 19 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs BBLMiragefrom 11 downvs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 downvs M80Miragefrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 4 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/72 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 20 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs 3DMAXNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs magicDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs SashiNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs PARIVISIONDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BBLMiragefrom 11 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs FalconsNuke14-16vs G2Anubis14-16vs Passion UANuke15-19vs M80Mirage16-13

MOUZ vs Liquid FAQ

Who is favored to win MOUZ vs Liquid?

MOUZ are favored with a 70% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for MOUZ vs Liquid?

Bookmakers price MOUZ at 1.2 and Liquid at 4 (implied 77% vs 23%).

When do MOUZ and Liquid play?

MOUZ vs Liquid is scheduled for 2026-10-24 10:00 UTC at PGL Masters Bucharest 2026.