Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / G2 vs Natus Vincere · match preview
G2 vs Natus Vincere: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
G2
World #8 · 47-32
VS
2026-10-24 16:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
Natus Vincere
World #11 · 32-24
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
57%43%
44%
2.121.65Market · 6 books
56%The call
G2 are favoured: our model gives them 57% against Natus Vincere. Bookmakers lean Natus Vincere at 56%. Firepower slightly favours G2.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2pullNatus Vincere
Team strength1655
164552/48 G2
Track record47–32
32–2451/49 G2
Recent formLWLLLLLWLW50/50
Roster rating1.11
1.162/38 G2
Head-to-head6 maps6 maps50/50
Bookmakers imply 44% for G2 (2.12 / 1.65); we land 13 points higher at 57%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (187 maps of G2, 144 of Natus Vincere). Head-to-head they've met 5 times: G2 leads 3–2.
Bottom line: G2 to beat Natus Vincere, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsG2 · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Natus Vincere · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| w0nderful★ | 1.26 | 72.1 | 75% | 38% | 1.17 |
| b1t | 1.1 | 76 | 75% | 61% | 1.16 |
| makazze | 1.02 | 80.1 | 73.1% | 54% | 1.16 |
| iM | 1.02 | 76.8 | 73.3% | 46% | 1.11 |
| Aleksib | 0.79 | 59.5 | 72.3% | 48% | 0.92 |
Recent form
G2
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents19d ago
G20 : 2 Natus Vincere◆ same lineup2mo ago G22 : 0 Natus Vincere◆ same lineup4mo ago G22 : 1 Natus Vincere!8mo ago G22 : 1 Natus Vincere!8mo ago G20 : 2 Natus Vincere!
G20 : 2 Natus Vincere◆ same lineup2mo ago G22 : 0 Natus Vincere◆ same lineup4mo ago G22 : 1 Natus Vincere!⚠ Different lineup
G2
outSunPayus
inr1nkle
G22 : 1 Natus Vincere!⚠ Different lineup
G2
outSunPayus, malbsMd
inNertZ, r1nkle
G20 : 2 Natus Vincere!⚠ Different lineup
G2
outSunPayus, malbsMd
inNertZ, r1nkle
Spirit#12-120-4
G2 vs Spirit
Aug 28LDust26-13Cache9-13Jun 19LOverpass13-9Dust214-16Mirage22-25May 15LDust26-13Ancient11-13+3 earlier meetings
Vitality#23-63-11
G2 vs Vitality
Apr 30LMirage13-16Overpass13-11Dust23-13Apr 14LMirage13-5Inferno13-16Feb 14LMirage11-13Inferno13-8Anubis8-13Natus Vincere vs Vitality
Oct 4LAnubis5-13Nuke13-5Mirage4-13May 16WDust211-13Anubis13-11Inferno13-3May 3LNuke12-16Anubis11-13Dust23-13+2 earlier meetings
FURIA#33-22-4
MOUZ#41-42-6
Aurora#54-59-5
G2 vs Aurora
Aug 31WAnubis7-13Inferno19-16Mirage13-1Aug 26WInferno13-5Anubis16-12Jun 13LOverpass8-13Anubis7-13+1 earlier meeting
Natus Vincere vs Aurora
Sep 17LNuke8-13Mirage7-13Apr 15WInferno13-4Mirage11-13Dust213-4Mar 23WAnubis13-8Nuke13-10+2 earlier meetings
Falcons#61-44-5
Legacy#72-53-6
G2 vs Legacy
Sep 13LAncient9-13Mirage10-13Dust24-13Jun 14WDust213-7Overpass13-4Mar 2LInferno14-16Dust28-13Natus Vincere vs Legacy
Aug 20LInferno9-13Ancient2-13Jun 12WInferno13-4Ancient13-10May 14LInferno11-13Ancient13-8Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
FUT#106-62-1
G2 vs FUT
Jun 12WOverpass13-5Ancient6-13Mirage13-9Jun 7LAnubis11-13Overpass13-7Ancient4-13Mar 10LMirage13-4Dust211-13Overpass11-13+1 earlier meeting
Natus Vincere vs FUT
Mar 14WMirage13-5Ancient11-13Dust213-7Map lab
Natus Vincere55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Natus Vincere 2-1
If the veto goes
G2 45%how the series ends55% Natus Vincere
30%2-020%
15%2-135%
G250%25-13vsNatus Vincere50%14-7
66%Win67%
61%CT59%
49%T47%
63%Pistol43%
75%Conv82%
G260%22-16vsNatus Vincere40%17-19
58%Win47%
57%CT56%
53%T45%
55%Pistol49%
90%Conv86%
G230%1-3vsNatus Vincere70%3-1
25%Win75%
35%CT73%
61%T46%
50%Pistol38%
100%Conv67%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
G2AncientNatus Vincere
61%CT side59%
49%T side47%
63%Pistol43%
75%After win82%
39%After loss21%
G2MirageNatus Vincere
57%CT side56%
53%T side45%
55%Pistol49%
90%After win86%
24%After loss16%
G2CacheNatus Vincere
35%CT side73%
61%T side46%
50%Pistol38%
100%After win67%
25%After loss20%
Pistol rounds59% · 46% · G2 win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 84% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol30% · 18% · G2 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Natus Vincere habitually bans Overpass, G2's strongest maps (Overpass, Ancient all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Overpass 42/56), not an opponent read, so expect G2 to fight the veto for Ancient.
MapG2NAT
NukeG2 bann/a0g64%9-5
G2 on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2NAT ban49%21-2252%14-13
AncientG2 pick66%25-1367%14-7
MirageNAT pick58%22-1647%17-19
AnubisG2 ban39%7-1153%8-7
InfernoNAT ban59%17-1252%14-13
Cachedecider25%1-375%3-1
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Nuke · Natus Vincere Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/104 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 104 maps they won, 27 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs FURIAAnubisfrom 10 downvs BIGCachefrom 8 downvs ShindeNDust2from 7 downvs AcendDust2from 6 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/82 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 82 maps they lost, 33 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIAAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 8 · lost 9-13vs BetBoomMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs AstralisAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs Passion UAOverpassled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FURIAAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIAAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs LiquidAnubis16-14vs SpiritDust213-16vs MOUZOverpass13-16vs LegacyInferno14-16vs paiNInferno14-16
Natus Vincere
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/79 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 29 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 downvs paiNMiragefrom 8 downvs 9zNukefrom 8 downvs PARIVISIONInfernofrom 7 downvs Passion UAAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/65 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 65 maps they lost, 16 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16vs FURIANukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs MOUZInfernoled 7 · lost 10-13vs The MongolZMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FUTAncientled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis16-19vs SpiritMirage14-16vs AuroraInferno16-12vs B8Ancient17-19vs B8Mirage16-14