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Predictions / MOUZ vs TYLOO · match preview
MOUZ vs TYLOO: CS2 match prediction · IEM Beijing 2026
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
63%37%
84%
1.125.8Market · 23 books
16%The call
MOUZ are favoured: our model gives them 63% against TYLOO. Bookmakers lean MOUZ at 84%. Strength clearly favours MOUZ, form clearly favours MOUZ, firepower slightly favours TYLOO, head-to-head slightly favours TYLOO.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZpullTYLOO
Team strength1748
164571/29 MOU
Track record43–23
45–2256/44 TYL
Recent formLWWWW
LLLWW71/29 MOU
Roster rating1.12
1.1769/31 TYL
Head-to-head0 maps
1 maps67/33 TYL
Bookmakers imply 84% for MOUZ (1.12 / 5.8); we land 21 points lower at 63%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (161 maps of MOUZ, 140 of TYLOO). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: TYLOO leads 1–0.
Bottom line: MOUZ to beat TYLOO, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
TYLOO · avg 1.17 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FURIA#36-60-2
MOUZ vs FURIA
Oct 9WNuke13-11Inferno13-6Oct 4WCache13-4Mirage13-7Sep 19LCache8-13Mirage19-16Nuke6-13+2 earlier meetings
TYLOO vs FURIA
Mar 18LMirage8-13Overpass11-13
Falcons#65-31-4
Legacy#74-10-4
FUT#105-80-2
MOUZ vs FUT
Aug 21LDust213-16Ancient5-13Aug 14LAncient6-13Nuke16-12Mirage11-13Jun 14LAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage7-13+2 earlier meetings
MIBR#122-00-1
MOUZ vs MIBR
May 24WOverpass13-3Ancient13-1TYLOO vs MIBR
Jun 2LNuke14-16
PARIVISION#134-31-2
9z#154-41-6
Astralis#164-21-0
TYLOO vs Astralis
Jun 7WNuke13-6Map lab
TYLOO62%to win the Bo3 · most likely TYLOO 2-1
If the veto goes
MOUZ 38%how the series ends62% TYLOO
24%2-025%
14%2-136%
MOUZ44%26-9vsTYLOO56%30-8
74%Win79%
63%CT64%
52%T60%
47%Pistol63%
88%Conv90%
MOUZ55%18-9vsTYLOO45%18-11
67%Win62%
60%CT57%
52%T48%
56%Pistol52%
70%Conv67%
MOUZ29%3-4vsTYLOO71%4-1
43%Win80%
63%CT77%
38%T43%
43%Pistol60%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MOUZMirageTYLOO
63%CT side64%
52%T side60%
47%Pistol63%
88%After win90%
32%After loss14%
MOUZInfernoTYLOO
60%CT side57%
52%T side48%
56%Pistol52%
70%After win67%
33%After loss18%
MOUZCacheTYLOO
63%CT side77%
38%T side43%
43%Pistol60%
100%After win100%
25%After loss25%
Pistol rounds50% · 58% · TYLOO win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol32% · 17% · MOUZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUTYL
AnubisMOU bann/a0g40%2-3
MOUZ on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2TYL ban46%17-20n/a0g
MOUZ on Dust2
L
Vitality12–1611d agoW
Spirit13–712d agoWSpirit13–517d agoL
NRG10–131mo agoLSpirit8–132mo agoWVitality13–112mo agoLFUT13–162mo agoWPARIVISION13–42mo agoTYLOO on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageMOU pick74%26-979%30-8
InfernoTYL pick67%18-962%18-11
AncientMOU ban42%8-1159%17-12
NukeTYL ban60%15-1062%13-8
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ Anubis · TYLOO Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/97 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 35 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 downvs Inner CircleAncientfrom 9 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 8 downvs NRGInfernofrom 8 downvs SpiritDust2from 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/64 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 21 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs FUTDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zAncientled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs FalconsInferno16-14vs FalconsDust219-17vs G2Overpass16-13vs FUTOverpass16-14vs AstralisAncient14-16
TYLOO
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/91 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 91 maps they won, 28 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs MorningstarAncientfrom 6 downvs SemperFiMiragefrom 6 downvs 9zMiragefrom 6 downvs NEXVOIDCachefrom 6 downvs FengDaNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/48 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 15 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AllianceAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs Lynn VisionInfernoled 7 · lost 10-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs SemperFiAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs Lynn VisionNukeled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MorningstarAncientfrom 6 down · won 25-22
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AllianceAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs Rare AtomInferno19-17vs Lynn VisionNuke16-12vs MorningstarAncient25-22vs FalconsInferno16-14vs URMirage16-13