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Predictions / Sashi vs FOKUS · match preview
Sashi vs FOKUS: CS2 match prediction · Stake Pulse Beat II
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
54%46%
43%
2.141.64Market · 2 books
57%The call
Sashi are favoured: our model gives them 54% against FOKUS. Bookmakers lean FOKUS at 57%. Firepower slightly favours Sashi, head-to-head slightly favours FOKUS.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SashipullFOKUS
Team strength1609161150/50
Track record45–34
39–2852/48 FOK
Recent formLWWLW
LWLWW53/47 SAS
Roster rating1.12
1.0968/32 SAS
Head-to-head2 maps
3 maps57/43 FOK
Bookmakers imply 43% for Sashi (2.14 / 1.64); we land 11 points higher at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (168 maps of Sashi, 155 of FOKUS). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: Sashi to beat FOKUS, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSashi · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FOKUS · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Sashi
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Aurora#90-22-1
Sashi vs Aurora
Mar 31LOverpass7-13Dust24-13FOKUS vs Aurora
Jul 23WCache13-11Nuke7-13Dust213-4
Inner Circle#241-27-3
Sashi vs Inner Circle
Jun 26LOverpass16-14Dust212-16Nuke14-16
HOTU#280-22-1
Sashi vs HOTU
May 19LNuke7-13Dust26-13FOKUS vs HOTU
Sep 5WAncient13-6Dust24-13Nuke13-10
100 Thieves#350-11-2
Sashi vs 100 Thieves
Mar 8LAncient4-13FOKUS vs 100 Thieves
Mar 9LAncient10-13Inferno16-14Nuke8-13
fnatic#423-12-1
FOKUS vs fnatic
May 30WAncient13-9Inferno7-13Dust213-8
Nemesis#441-21-2
Sashi vs Nemesis
Mar 10LAncient13-4Inferno3-13Nuke11-13FOKUS vs Nemesis
May 31LAncient13-10Mirage5-13Dust29-13
SINNERS#454-22-0
FOKUS vs SINNERS
Sep 3WNuke13-6Ancient16-13
Virtus.pro#462-11-2
Sashi vs Virtus.pro
Aug 9WCache4-13Dust213-11Nuke13-3FOKUS vs Virtus.pro
Sep 12LCache13-11Mirage10-13Ancient10-13Map lab
FOKUS71%to win the Bo3 · most likely FOKUS 2-1
If the veto goes
Sashi 29%how the series ends71% FOKUS
19%2-026%
10%2-145%
Sashi64%23-17vsFOKUS36%12-16
58%Win43%
60%CT54%
48%T43%
56%Pistol41%
71%Conv83%
Sashi29%13-14vsFOKUS71%24-10
48%Win71%
51%CT57%
49%T53%
44%Pistol60%
88%Conv85%
Sashi18%8-4vsFOKUS82%7-0
67%Win100%
58%CT53%
53%T61%
67%Pistol29%
81%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SashiNukeFOKUS
60%CT side54%
48%T side43%
56%Pistol41%
71%After win83%
23%After loss36%
SashiAncientFOKUS
51%CT side57%
49%T side53%
44%Pistol60%
88%After win85%
23%After loss30%
SashiCacheFOKUS
58%CT side53%
53%T side61%
67%Pistol29%
81%After win75%
50%After loss20%
Pistol rounds54% · 49% · Sashi win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 84% · FOKUS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol26% · 31% · FOKUS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Sashi vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
FOKUS habitually bans Anubis, Sashi's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 57/67), not an opponent read, so expect Sashi to fight the veto for Nuke.
MapSASFOK
MirageSAS ban29%4-1048%11-12
AnubisFOK ban60%6-467%2-1
NukeSAS pick58%23-1743%12-16
AncientFOK pick48%13-1471%24-10
Dust2SAS ban40%10-1543%13-17
InfernoFOK ban71%15-652%11-10
Each team's usual first ban: Sashi Mirage · FOKUS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Sashi
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/88 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 88 maps they won, 28 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs LiquidNukefrom 6 downvs KOLESIEAncientfrom 6 downvs ECSTATICNukefrom 5 downvs OmegaAncientfrom 5 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/78 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 78 maps they lost, 20 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs WalczakiInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Nuclear TigeRESNukeled 6 · lost 7-13vs OmegaMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs PhantomMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LiquidNukefrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs MASONICNuke16-12vs ECSTATICMirage13-16vs OmegaAncient19-16vs Lazer CatsNuke13-16vs fnaticAncient14-16
FOKUS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/87 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 87 maps they won, 34 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 6 downvs 100 ThievesInfernofrom 6 downvs SINNERSAncientfrom 6 downvs 1winCachefrom 6 downvs Inner CircleDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/68 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 20 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INFINITEMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs NemigaMirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs Gentle MatesNukeled 6 · lost 8-13vs EchoAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INFINITEMirageled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs Inner CircleDust216-14vs Inner CircleMirage16-13vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs 100 ThievesInferno16-14vs VocaAncient16-12