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Predictions / NRG vs Wildcard · match preview
NRG vs Wildcard: CS2 match prediction · iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026
NRG
World #50 · 32-22
VS
2026-09-25 17:00 UTC
iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026 · Best of 3
Wildcard
World #40 · 31-23
iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026 · Best of 3
70%30%
63%
1.472.53Market · 2 books
37%The call · high confidence
NRG are favoured: our model gives them 70% against Wildcard. Bookmakers lean NRG at 63%. Strength slightly favours NRG, form slightly favours NRG, firepower clearly favours NRG.
Likely mapsCache · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NRGpullWildcard
Team strength1654
158465/35 NRG
Track record32–22
31–2352/48 NRG
Recent formWLWWW
LWWLL59/41 NRG
Roster rating1.14
1.1492/8 NRG
Bookmakers imply 63% for NRG (1.47 / 2.53); we land 7 points higher at 70%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (129 maps of NRG, 115 of Wildcard).
Bottom line: NRG to beat Wildcard, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNRG · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Wildcard · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
NRG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FURIA#41-20-1
NRG vs FURIA
Mar 22LMirage13-10Nuke2-13Dust27-13Wildcard vs FURIA
Aug 12LInferno10-13
B8#164-10-2
Wildcard vs B8
Apr 4LNuke7-13Mirage10-13
M80#260-40-4
EYEBALLERS#490-22-1
NRG vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 6LNuke14-16Mirage6-13Wildcard vs EYEBALLERS
Sep 10WNuke6-13Mirage16-13Cache13-4
Acend#582-12-0
NRG vs Acend
Aug 8WCache13-2Inferno11-13Mirage13-9Wildcard vs Acend
May 23WInferno13-11Dust213-9
Voca#8413-410-9
NRG vs Voca
Sep 11WNuke13-10Cache13-5Aug 3WCache13-7Ancient16-13Aug 2LCache13-1Nuke5-13Ancient8-13+4 earlier meetings
Wildcard vs Voca
May 4LDust28-13Overpass12-16May 2WDust213-4Overpass13-6Apr 25WDust213-9Overpass13-6+4 earlier meetings
LAG#942-05-3
Passion UA3-23-5
Map lab
NRG60%to win the Bo3 · most likely NRG 2-0
If the veto goes
NRG 60%how the series ends40% Wildcard
35%2-017%
25%2-123%
NRG61%9-1vsWildcard39%1-1
90%Win50%
77%CT63%
65%T27%
80%Pistol25%
87%Conv100%
NRG57%18-8vsWildcard43%15-9
69%Win63%
67%CT59%
43%T49%
56%Pistol42%
89%Conv95%
NRG52%9-9vsWildcard48%14-15
50%Win48%
51%CT48%
45%T58%
42%Pistol57%
73%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NRGCacheWildcard
77%CT side63%
65%T side27%
80%Pistol25%
87%After win100%
25%After loss0%
NRGMirageWildcard
67%CT side59%
43%T side49%
56%Pistol42%
89%After win95%
4%After loss18%
NRGDust2Wildcard
51%CT side48%
45%T side58%
42%Pistol57%
73%After win88%
14%After loss32%
Pistol rounds56% · 49% · NRG win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 91% · Wildcard keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol10% · 23% · Wildcard fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NRG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNRGWIL
AnubisNRG ban0%0-260%3-2
AncientWIL ban53%10-9n/a0g
NRG on Ancient
W
Without a Roof13–87d agoL
Phantom7–131mo agoWVoca16–132mo agoLVoca8–132mo agoL
Marsborne6–132mo agoW
NuTorious16–132mo agoLM806–134mo agoW
MOUZ13–104mo agoWildcard on Ancient
no recent maps
CacheNRG pick90%9-150%1-1
MirageWIL pick69%18-863%15-9
NukeNRG ban47%9-1057%12-9
InfernoWIL ban48%11-1250%10-10
Each team's usual first ban: NRG Anubis · Wildcard Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NRG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/72 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 72 maps they won, 24 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 downvs 9INEDust2from 8 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 6 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/55 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 19 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16vs MOUZInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs VocaMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs FUTAncientled 7 · lost 13-16vs MarsborneInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs MarsborneMirage22-19vs 9INEDust225-23vs 9INEOverpass14-16vs VocaDust216-14vs MarsborneMirage19-17
Wildcard
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/64 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 64 maps they won, 14 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs BetBoomOverpassfrom 7 downvs Passion UAMiragefrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 downvs NemesisInfernofrom 6 downvs FOKUSNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/51 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 51 maps they lost, 19 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PARIVISIONDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs K27Dust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs The MongolZDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs VocaOverpassled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BetBoomOverpassfrom 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PARIVISIONDust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs SharksNuke12-16vs LAGInferno16-13vs Fisher CollegeMirage22-19vs FOKUSInferno16-14vs PARIVISIONMirage26-28