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Predictions / FOKUS vs BAKS · match preview
FOKUS vs BAKS: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 12
FOKUS
World #52 · 55-36
VS
2026-10-31 15:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
BAKS
World #106 · 25-21
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
73%27%
74%
1.263.54Market · 9 books
26%The call · high confidence
FOKUS are favoured: our model gives them 73% against BAKS. Bookmakers lean FOKUS at 74%. Strength clearly favours FOKUS, firepower slightly favours BAKS.
Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FOKUSpullBAKS
Team strength1688
154877/23 FOK
Track record55–36
25–2156/44 FOK
Recent formWWWWW
WWLWL57/43 FOK
Roster rating1.13
1.159/41 BAK
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 74% for FOKUS (1.26 / 3.54) and we land at 73%, the same read. This read is 96% our own signal (203 maps of FOKUS, 116 of BAKS).
Bottom line: FOKUS to beat BAKS, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFOKUS · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BAKS · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
FOKUS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Virtus.pro#551-21-2
FOKUS vs Virtus.pro
Sep 12LCache13-11Mirage10-13Ancient10-13BAKS vs Virtus.pro
Jul 30LCache13-8Nuke10-13Mirage7-13
BET-M#781-22-0
FOKUS vs BET-M
Sep 4LInferno8-13Ancient13-10Nuke8-13BAKS vs BET-M
Jul 28WAncient13-8Inferno13-6
Leo#852-00-2
FOKUS vs Leo
Sep 12WCache13-5Anubis13-2BAKS vs Leo
Sep 26LCache9-13Nuke10-13
BRUTE#892-11-2
FOKUS vs BRUTE
Oct 27WCache11-13Mirage25-23Nuke13-10BAKS vs BRUTE
Oct 23LCache13-8Inferno8-13Nuke7-13
OG#1242-12-0
FOKUS vs OG
Jun 23WNuke13-6Dust210-13Overpass13-7BAKS vs OG
Aug 14WMirage13-6Inferno13-11LFOLFO 10#1702-01-2
FOKUS vs LFO 10
Oct 30WCache13-7Mirage16-13BAKS vs LFO 10
Oct 21LMirage13-7Cache7-13Ancient4-13
CYBERSHOKE2-10-4
FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE
Jun 20WDust213-5Overpass7-13Ancient13-8
SPARTA2-11-2
FOKUS vs SPARTA
Sep 26WDust214-16Cache13-7Nuke13-6BAKS vs SPARTA
Sep 16LAncient19-16Dust25-13Inferno3-13Map lab
FOKUS67%to win the Bo3 · most likely FOKUS 2-0
If the veto goes
FOKUS 67%how the series ends33% BAKS
38%2-013%
29%2-120%
FOKUS52%28-11vsBAKS48%8-3
72%Win73%
60%CT55%
53%T52%
62%Pistol45%
83%Conv80%
FOKUS73%16-3vsBAKS27%21-13
84%Win62%
56%CT55%
59%T53%
55%Pistol46%
81%Conv94%
FOKUS59%23-17vsBAKS41%9-10
58%Win47%
60%CT58%
45%T38%
43%Pistol55%
85%Conv81%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FOKUSAncientBAKS
60%CT side55%
53%T side52%
62%Pistol45%
83%After win80%
30%After loss8%
FOKUSCacheBAKS
56%CT side55%
59%T side53%
55%Pistol46%
81%After win94%
24%After loss19%
FOKUSNukeBAKS
60%CT side58%
45%T side38%
43%Pistol55%
85%After win81%
37%After loss18%
Pistol rounds53% · 48% · FOKUS win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 87% · BAKS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol32% · 17% · FOKUS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FOKUS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFOKBAK
AnubisFOK ban50%3-3n/a0g
FOKUS on Anubis
L
Nuclear TigeRES8–134d agoLNuclear TigeRES3–1317d agoW
Iberian Soul13–111mo agoWLeo13–22mo agoW
1win13–112mo agoL
ex-Zero Tenacity13–162mo agoBAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoBAK ban50%11-1129%4-10
AncientFOK pick72%28-1173%8-3
CacheBAK pick84%16-362%21-13
MirageFOK ban45%13-1677%10-3
Dust2BAK ban44%17-2238%9-15
Each team's usual first ban: FOKUS Anubis · BAKS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FOKUS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i44/118 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 118 maps they won, 44 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs Just PlayersAncientfrom 11 downvs ex-Zero TenacityCachefrom 8 downvs ex-6666Nukefrom 7 downvs ex-Zero TenacityDust2from 7 downvs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/85 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 85 maps they lost, 28 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BBLCacheled 9 · lost 4-13vs INFINITEMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs NemigaMirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs NemigaDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Just PlayersAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BBLCacheled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs Inner CircleDust216-14vs Inner CircleMirage16-13vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs 100 ThievesInferno16-14vs VocaAncient16-12
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/61 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 61 maps they won, 21 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 downvs CRUISER AURORAMiragefrom 10 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 10 downvs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/55 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 17 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs Black PhoenixDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs K27Cacheled 7 · lost 17-19vs GenOneInfernoled 7 · lost 7-13vs G2 AresInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20