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Predictions / Alliance vs FOKUS · match preview
Alliance vs FOKUS: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11
Alliance
World #35 · 60-33
VS
2026-11-09 14:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
FOKUS
World #54 · 60-37
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
30%70%
46%
21.73Market · 2 books
54%The call · high confidence
FOKUS are favoured: our model gives them 70% against Alliance. Bookmakers lean FOKUS at 54%. Strength slightly favours FOKUS, firepower clearly favours FOKUS.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AlliancepullFOKUS
Team strength1599
169570/30 FOK
Track record60–33
60–3751/49 FOK
Recent formWWWLL
WWWLW52/48 FOK
Roster rating1.1
1.1498/2 FOK
Bookmakers imply 46% for Alliance (2 / 1.73); we land 16 points lower at 30%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (201 maps of Alliance, 217 of FOKUS).
Bottom line: FOKUS to beat Alliance, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAlliance · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FOKUS · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Aurora#52-12-1
Alliance vs Aurora
Apr 1WInferno2-13Anubis13-9Overpass13-11FOKUS vs Aurora
Jul 23WCache13-11Nuke7-13Dust213-4
Nemiga#90-22-5
Alliance vs Nemiga
Oct 2LCache6-13Ancient8-13
PARIVISION#130-10-2
Alliance vs PARIVISION
Jul 1LAncient4-13FOKUS vs PARIVISION
Apr 5LDust29-13Inferno14-16
Astralis#192-11-4
Alliance vs Astralis
Oct 1WInferno16-14Cache5-13Nuke13-10
Ninjas in Pyjamas#231-22-0
FOKUS vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 9WCache13-11Mirage13-10
fnatic#274-32-1
Alliance vs fnatic
Oct 3LCache5-13Inferno11-13Jun 14WAnubis13-4Dust217-19Ancient13-6Mar 31WAnubis13-9Inferno16-13FOKUS vs fnatic
May 30WAncient13-9Inferno7-13Dust213-8
Inner Circle#382-17-3
Alliance vs Inner Circle
Mar 31WDust213-7Overpass11-13Anubis13-8
SINNERS#403-42-0
Alliance vs SINNERS
Sep 25LDust27-13Inferno13-9Ancient5-13Feb 20WDust213-10Inferno13-10Feb 10LOverpass9-13Mirage10-13FOKUS vs SINNERS
Sep 3WNuke13-6Ancient16-13Map lab
FOKUS52%to win the Bo3 · most likely FOKUS 2-1
If the veto goes
Alliance 48%how the series ends52% FOKUS
22%2-022%
26%2-130%
Alliance68%33-15vsFOKUS32%11-11
69%Win50%
54%CT48%
55%T54%
54%Pistol50%
75%Conv86%
Alliance32%17-14vsFOKUS68%29-11
55%Win73%
54%CT61%
47%T53%
40%Pistol63%
88%Conv84%
Alliance46%18-15vsFOKUS54%24-17
55%Win59%
55%CT60%
46%T45%
55%Pistol43%
78%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AllianceInfernoFOKUS
54%CT side48%
55%T side54%
54%Pistol50%
75%After win86%
25%After loss14%
AllianceAncientFOKUS
54%CT side61%
47%T side53%
40%Pistol63%
88%After win84%
24%After loss30%
AllianceNukeFOKUS
55%CT side60%
46%T side45%
55%Pistol43%
78%After win86%
17%After loss36%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol79% · 85% · FOKUS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol23% · 29% · FOKUS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Alliance vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
FOKUS habitually bans Anubis, Alliance's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 68/94), not an opponent read, so expect Alliance to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapALLFOK
MirageALL ban29%2-548%15-16
AnubisFOK ban65%20-1143%3-4
InfernoALL pick69%33-1550%11-11
AncientFOK pick55%17-1473%29-11
CacheALL ban0%0-479%19-5
Dust2FOK ban57%13-1047%20-23
Nukedecider55%18-1559%24-17
Each team's usual first ban: Alliance Mirage · FOKUS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Alliance
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/116 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 116 maps they won, 34 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 downvs UNiTYOverpassfrom 6 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 6 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 6 downvs 9zDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/84 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 27 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 3DMAXDust2led 9 · lost 10-13vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19vs FaZeAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs UNiTYAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 3DMAXDust2led 9 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs MetizportNuke19-17vs PhantomOverpass19-17vs WHITEBIRDInferno13-16vs VP.ProdigyAnubis14-16vs kONOAnubis16-13
FOKUS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i48/128 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 128 maps they won, 48 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs Just PlayersAncientfrom 11 downvs ex-Zero TenacityCachefrom 8 downvs ex-6666Nukefrom 7 downvs ex-Zero TenacityDust2from 7 downvs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/89 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 89 maps they lost, 30 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BBLCacheled 9 · lost 4-13vs INFINITEMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs NemigaMirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs NemigaDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs AcendDust2led 7 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Just PlayersAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BBLCacheled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs Inner CircleDust216-14vs Inner CircleMirage16-13vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs 100 ThievesInferno16-14vs VocaAncient16-12