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Alliance vs FOKUS: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11

Alliance
World #35 · 60-33
VS
2026-11-09 14:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
FOKUS
World #54 · 60-37
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
30%
Win probability
70%
46%
21.73Market · 2 booksBookmakerALLFOKGGBet21.73Thunderpick Row21.74
54%
The call · high confidence

FOKUS are favoured: our model gives them 70% against Alliance. Bookmakers lean FOKUS at 54%. Strength slightly favours FOKUS, firepower clearly favours FOKUS.

Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Nuke

Firepower

roster ratings

Alliance · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
eraa★1.3178.974.6%32%1.19
avid1.0376.274.4%54%1.13
bobeksde0.9979.769.8%60%1.11
twist0.9471.573.1%52%1.05
upE0.9165.171.6%62%1.01

FOKUS · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
jocab★1.1476.576.9%46%1.19
Matheos1.0578.772.6%62%1.16
podi1.227174.4%30%1.14
Banjo1.0372.974.6%52%1.13
ztr0.9373.371.6%49%1.06

Recent form

Alliance

PRIVATEComebackCB6OvertimeOT1d ago2-09INEOvertimeOT2d ago2-0MAYBE2d ago2-1B812d ago1-2FaZeStompStomp2-1313d ago0-2PRIVATE20d ago0-2The MongolZ21d ago0-2fnatic1mo ago0-2Nemiga1mo ago0-2AstralisUpsetUpsetOvertimeOT1mo ago2-13DMAXBlew leadBL91mo ago0-2SINNERS2mo ago1-2MIBR2mo ago0-2magicUpsetUpsetPistolsPist3/42mo ago2-0TYLOOPistolsPist0/4ComebackCB82mo ago2-0

FOKUS

AcendOvertimeOT1d ago2-0Balkan OutlawsOvertimeOT2d ago2-0DNK2d ago2-1BetclicBlew leadBL6OvertimeOT8d ago0-2Acend8d ago2-1BAKSPistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT9d ago2-0LFO 10PistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT10d ago2-0BRUTEPistolsPist5/6OvertimeOT13d ago2-1Nuclear TigeRES13d ago2-1ex-Zero Tenacity14d ago2-0ex-6666ComebackCB7OvertimeOT16d ago2-0UNiTYUpsetUpset19d ago1-2ex-Zero TenacityComebackCB8OvertimeOT20d ago2-0Nuclear TigeRES26d ago1-2Younglings26d ago2-0

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
Aurora#52-12-1
Alliance vs Aurora
Apr 1WInferno2-13Anubis13-9Overpass13-11
FOKUS vs Aurora
Jul 23WCache13-11Nuke7-13Dust213-4
Nemiga#90-22-5
Alliance vs Nemiga
Oct 2LCache6-13Ancient8-13
FOKUS vs Nemiga
Sep 28LDust26-13Mirage20-22Sep 6LMirage14-16Ancient3-13May 31WDust213-8Mirage14-16Overpass13-3
PARIVISION#130-10-2
Alliance vs PARIVISION
Jul 1LAncient4-13
FOKUS vs PARIVISION
Apr 5LDust29-13Inferno14-16
Astralis#192-11-4
Alliance vs Astralis
Oct 1WInferno16-14Cache5-13Nuke13-10
FOKUS vs Astralis
Sep 21LCache11-13Ancient8-13Jul 21LDust213-10Ancient11-13Nuke1-13
Ninjas in Pyjamas#231-22-0
Alliance vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 2WAncient13-3Mar 15LOverpass6-13Nuke4-13
FOKUS vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 9WCache13-11Mirage13-10
fnatic#274-32-1
Alliance vs fnatic
Oct 3LCache5-13Inferno11-13Jun 14WAnubis13-4Dust217-19Ancient13-6Mar 31WAnubis13-9Inferno16-13
FOKUS vs fnatic
May 30WAncient13-9Inferno7-13Dust213-8
Inner Circle#382-17-3
Alliance vs Inner Circle
Mar 31WDust213-7Overpass11-13Anubis13-8
FOKUS vs Inner Circle
May 24WNuke6-13Mirage16-14Ancient13-8Mar 1WDust216-14Nuke10-13Ancient13-6Mirage16-13Feb 27WDust26-13Nuke13-9Ancient13-7
SINNERS#403-42-0
Alliance vs SINNERS
Sep 25LDust27-13Inferno13-9Ancient5-13Feb 20WDust213-10Inferno13-10Feb 10LOverpass9-13Mirage10-13
FOKUS vs SINNERS
Sep 3WNuke13-6Ancient16-13

Map lab

FOKUS52%to win the Bo3 · most likely FOKUS 2-1
If the veto goes
Alliance 48%how the series ends52% FOKUS
22%2-022%
26%2-130%
Map 1InfernoAlliance pick
Alliance68%33-15vsFOKUS32%11-11
69%Win50%
54%CT48%
55%T54%
54%Pistol50%
75%Conv86%
Map 2AncientFOKUS pick
Alliance32%17-14vsFOKUS68%29-11
55%Win73%
54%CT61%
47%T53%
40%Pistol63%
88%Conv84%
Map 3Nukedecider
Alliance46%18-15vsFOKUS54%24-17
55%Win59%
55%CT60%
46%T45%
55%Pistol43%
78%Conv86%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

AllianceInfernoFOKUS
54%CT side48%
55%T side54%
54%Pistol50%
75%After win86%
25%After loss14%
AllianceAncientFOKUS
54%CT side61%
47%T side53%
40%Pistol63%
88%After win84%
24%After loss30%
AllianceNukeFOKUS
55%CT side60%
46%T side45%
55%Pistol43%
78%After win86%
17%After loss36%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol79% · 85% · FOKUS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol23% · 29% · FOKUS fight back and win the next round more often

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Alliance vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

FOKUS habitually bans Anubis, Alliance's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 68/94), not an opponent read, so expect Alliance to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapALLFOK
MirageALL ban29%2-548%15-16
Alliance on Mirage
WPRIVATE16–121d agoWMAYBE13–102d agoLB89–1312d agoLFaZe2–1313d agoLPRIVATE11–1320d agoLENCE5–139mo agoLSINNERS10–139mo ago
FOKUS on Mirage
WDNK13–52d agoWBAKS13–89d agoWLFO 1016–1310d agoWBRUTE25–2313d agoLUNiTY8–1319d agoLBBL11–131mo agoLNemiga20–221mo agoLSangal11–132mo ago
AnubisFOK ban65%20-1143%3-4
Alliance on Anubis
W9INE13–92d agoLMAYBE11–132d agoLMetizport5–135mo agoWfnatic13–45mo agoLNexus9–135mo agoLSharks13–165mo agoW3DMAX13–86mo agoLFaZe8–136mo ago
FOKUS on Anubis
LBetclic13–168d agoLNuclear TigeRES8–1313d agoLNuclear TigeRES3–1326d agoWIberian Soul13–111mo agoWLeo13–22mo agoW1win13–112mo agoLex-Zero Tenacity13–162mo ago
InfernoALL pick69%33-1550%11-11
Alliance on Inferno
WB813–1012d agoLThe MongolZ8–1321d agoLfnatic11–131mo agoWAstralis16–141mo agoL3DMAX11–131mo agoWSINNERS13–92mo agoLMIBR4–132mo agoWmagic13–72mo ago
FOKUS on Inferno
LJiJieHao8–131mo agoLBET-M8–132mo agoLAcend4–133mo agoWPartizan16–123mo agoLHEROIC10–134mo agoWNoir Verse13–45mo agoLfnatic7–135mo agoLWildcard7–136mo ago
AncientFOK pick55%17-1473%29-11
Alliance on Ancient
W9INE16–142d agoWMAYBE13–62d agoLB810–1312d agoLFaZe6–1313d agoLNemiga8–131mo agoLSINNERS5–132mo agoWmagic16–132mo agoWTYLOO13–112mo ago
FOKUS on Ancient
WAcend13–38d agoWNuclear TigeRES13–813d agoWex-666613–316d agoWYounglings13–326d agoWJust Players13–226d agoLAstralis8–132mo agoLSashi8–132mo agoLVirtus.pro10–132mo ago
CacheALL ban0%0-479%19-5
Alliance on Cache
Lfnatic5–131mo agoLNemiga6–131mo agoLAstralis5–131mo agoLMIBR9–132mo ago
FOKUS on Cache
WAcend13–51d agoWBalkan Outlaws13–72d agoLDNK10–132d agoLBetclic9–138d agoWAcend13–98d agoWLFO 1013–710d agoLBRUTE11–1313d agoWUNiTY13–719d ago
Dust2FOK ban57%13-1047%20-23
Alliance on Dust2
LThe MongolZ11–1321d agoL3DMAX10–131mo agoLSINNERS7–132mo agoLLegacy6–132mo agoLWildcard7–134mo agoW9z16–144mo agoLfnatic17–195mo agoWNexus13–35mo ago
FOKUS on Dust2
WAcend16–131d agoWBalkan Outlaws16–122d agoWDNK13–72d agoLAcend8–138d agoWex-Zero Tenacity13–1114d agoLUNiTY8–1319d agoLNuclear TigeRES4–1326d agoWex-Zero Tenacity13–227d ago
Nukedecider55%18-1559%24-17
Alliance on Nuke
WPRIVATE16–131d agoLPRIVATE10–1320d agoWAstralis13–101mo agoWFaZe13–112mo agoL9z10–134mo agoLNemesis8–134mo agoWMetizport19–155mo agoWBASEMENT BOYS13–45mo ago
FOKUS on Nuke
WBAKS16–149d agoWBRUTE13–1013d agoWNuclear TigeRES13–1113d agoWex-Zero Tenacity13–614d agoWex-666616–1316d agoWex-Zero Tenacity13–720d agoWNuclear TigeRES13–526d agoWYounglings13–326d ago
Each team's usual first ban: Alliance Mirage · FOKUS Anubis.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Alliance

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/116 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 116 maps they won, 34 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 downvs UNiTYOverpassfrom 6 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 6 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 6 downvs 9zDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/84 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 27 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 3DMAXDust2led 9 · lost 10-13vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19vs FaZeAncientled 7 · lost 6-13vs UNiTYAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 3DMAXDust2led 9 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs MetizportNuke19-17vs PhantomOverpass19-17vs WHITEBIRDInferno13-16vs VP.ProdigyAnubis14-16vs kONOAnubis16-13

FOKUS

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i48/128 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 128 maps they won, 48 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs Just PlayersAncientfrom 11 downvs ex-Zero TenacityCachefrom 8 downvs ex-6666Nukefrom 7 downvs ex-Zero TenacityDust2from 7 downvs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/89 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 89 maps they lost, 30 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BBLCacheled 9 · lost 4-13vs INFINITEMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs NemigaMirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs NemigaDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs AcendDust2led 7 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Just PlayersAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BBLCacheled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs Inner CircleDust216-14vs Inner CircleMirage16-13vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs 100 ThievesInferno16-14vs VocaAncient16-12

Alliance vs FOKUS FAQ

Who is favored to win Alliance vs FOKUS?

FOKUS are favored with a 70% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Alliance vs FOKUS?

Bookmakers price Alliance at 2 and FOKUS at 1.73 (implied 46% vs 54%).

When do Alliance and FOKUS play?

Alliance vs FOKUS is scheduled for 2026-11-09 14:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11.